Monday, March 23, 2009

Fourth Annual PH4H NCAA Tournament Pick 'em -- Second Round Results

The second round of the Fourth Annual PH4H NCAA Tournament Pick 'em Contest is over:

1. Steve: 178 points, 33 correct picks
2. Rachel: 176 points, 34 correct
3. Aaron: 175 points, 37 correct
4. Andy: 159 points, 33 correct
5. Dara: 156 points, 33 correct
6. Jason: 155 points, 33 correct
7. Dan: 147 points, 34 correct
8. Caroline: 130 points, 25 correct
9. Jeff: 129 points, 31 correct
10. Bo: 115 points, 30 correct
11. Inbal: 105 points, 27 correct

Of course, everyone knows this contest was designed to encourage picking upsets. If you picked all higher seeds, you would have gotten 146 points with 36 correct picks -- which is statistically better than any of us, but only 8th place in terms of points. On the other hand, if you picked all upsets, you would have gotten 108 points with 10 correct picks -- and would be unable to get any more points. Both illustrate that favorites generally win. But I'm also considering this as statistical validation that the scoring system is, indeed, achieving its desired result -- and that you can't game the system by "picking chalk."

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